the concepts in this chart should be familiar to anyone who's studied Hurst's "Profit Magic...." book.
SMH is approx 8+ wks along off it's july low with a nominal 10 wk cycle (12/13 wks) bottom due in 4+ wks. the last rally off the lower channel line failed (so far) to come near or tag the upper channel. how SMH moves up in relation to that upper channel line and/or the light blue line beneath it should indicate whether SMH has/is forming a top or rounding over for this current 12/13 wk cycle. alternately, a break down thru the lower channel line would also indicate this cycle has topped. this 12/13 wk cycle is right translated indicating the sum of cycles larger than it are on the upside. i expect the next bottom of this cycle to hold well above the july low.
click on chart to see details....

yesterday (wed) saw a nice rally up off the 6/7 day cycle bottom mentioned in the previous post
with the SP500 chart.