cycle projections

SPX fld projection chart....a few days after the SPX june low around 1220 i posted a forecast on a few message boards based on expected future fld crossings that SPX would test it's may highs and most likely move toward a new high near 1370 +/- some points. i estimated it should occur by late aug/sept. in july i revamped my commonality phasing model resulting in a re labeling of the 20 wk cycle low and thus extending the time window for these events to take place. the revamping did not have an effect on fld status since they are based on actual sample lengths of the nominal cycles in hurst's model.this chart shows the subsequent fld crosses and targets. SPX got to within 15 pts of the lower window for the 40 wk cycle projection today. we do have an upcoming nest of cycle lows due at the end of oct/early nov so some caution is warranted. trendline breaks, downside crosses of smaller cycle flds (not shown), should be watched.
click on chart for detail.........

SP500

the 5 wk cycle low i expected wed appears to have bottomed early on monday. there have been instances in the past where this normal 12/14 day cycle bottomed at 10/11 days. i re entered long dec e minis at 1341.50 avg price with a stop at the noon low of 1337.75.
meanwhile, a cyclic forecast i made on june 17th on the Trader's Talk forum is still in effect.......
this latest 20 wk cycle again was right translated, indicating the sum of all larger cycles remains very bullish, even this late in the 4.5 yr cycle. if those conditions remain, and there is no cyclic evidence to the contrary, the condition exists for a powerful move to new highs for the yr on SPX this summer, perhaps to the 1370 area + to create a right translated 40 wk cycle high before that cycle bottom is due end of sept/early oct.
this forecast was made after the markets had just plunged from their may highs to the june lows, with most market technicians believing the high for the year was made in may for the SP500 and the decline would continue into oct.
the only change to my forecast was made based on a relabeling of of the nominal 20 wk low to mid june . that extended the time window for the move to 1370 +/- to late sept early oct.
the next nominal 20 wk cycle low is due the end of oct/early nov.

U.S. Dollar Index

the trend is up. should attempt the high 87's as it moves up off it's nominal 20 wk cycle low.
click on chart to enlarge.......

upcoming 5 wk cycle bottom

the current short term cyclic picture for SPX. we're due for a nominal 5 wk nest of cycle lows bottom ideally this wed/thur. the only price projection into that low comes from the nominal 2.5 wk (12/14 day) cycle fld. the grey arrows point to the fld break and the measured move from top to bottom. fld targets are undershot, met, or overshot based on the prevailing trend. the highlighted in purple area is a key to watch next week. the price level SPX reaches at the expected 5 wk low will IMO be a clue to whether SPX can attempt to reach the projected 1370 area +/- approx 15 pts. a test of the highs (achieved), followed by a move to the 1370 area, was made using these same fld methods after the june SPX low. the higher this next 5 wk bottom the higher the chances to meet that target before the next important nest of cycle lows due the end of oct/early nov. other features on the chart show that the 5 wk cycle fld did not give a downside target due to trend and right translation of the cycles. that usually implies strength. it may or not be tagged or crossed this week.marked with little orange 0's are the nominal 3/3.5 day cycles. these are usually easier to locate on intraday charts, notice how the last two 3 day bottoms have made lower lows, indicating the 12/14 day and 5 wk cycle topping and rolling over process. there may or may not be one more very short term pop up off this last 3 day cycle before the 5 wk low is due.
click on chart for detail....

early friday morning...
the markets may have put in a top for the nominal 5 wk cycle, due to bottom next week. since there was some negative fed news associated with thursday's decline it is still possible for SPX to rally or attempt to make a higher high in the next day or two before the low of that cycle is due. this chart shows the likely window for the next 5 wk cycle bottom. if the 2.5 wk fld line (red) is crossed to the downside tomorrow (determined by a line connecting thursday's midpoint price to friday's midpoint price) we will get a downside projection, indicating the decline into the 5 wk low is confirmed.

click on chart for detail...

the concepts in this chart should be familiar to anyone who's studied Hurst's "Profit Magic...." book.
SMH is approx 8+ wks along off it's july low with a nominal 10 wk cycle (12/13 wks) bottom due in 4+ wks. the last rally off the lower channel line failed (so far) to come near or tag the upper channel. how SMH moves up in relation to that upper channel line and/or the light blue line beneath it should indicate whether SMH has/is forming a top or rounding over for this current 12/13 wk cycle. alternately, a break down thru the lower channel line would also indicate this cycle has topped. this 12/13 wk cycle is right translated indicating the sum of cycles larger than it are on the upside. i expect the next bottom of this cycle to hold well above the july low.
click on chart to see details....

yesterday (wed) saw a nice rally up off the 6/7 day cycle bottom mentioned in the previous post
with the SP500 chart.

the 6/7 day cycle mentioned in the last post bottomed tuesday afternoon. intermediate trend remains up.
this chart shows the 3/3.5 day and 6/7 day cycle with the fld (cycle price projection line) for the SPX.
click on chart for details.

SP500 and other broad indexes minor 6/7 day cycle due to bottom today. more later.....

US Dollar weekly chart with cycle phasings. intermediate trend is up. click on chart for detail.

first attempt at blogging so will proceed slowly.
this daily chart of the SP500 indicates the nominal 5 wk and 2.5 wk cycle lows. we are approx 4 1/2 days off the last 2.5 wk low. we also have both the 5 wk cycle 1/2 span moving average and the 2.5 wk cycle 1/2 span moving averages trending higher, indicating that the sum of the trends of all cycles larger than 5 wks in length is currently up. the 2.5 wk cycles since the july low are showing right translations, also bullish. i expect higher prices on SPX short term.